Monday, November 26, 2012

Change We Mistakenly Believe In

Here's a common example of confirmation bias and selective memory most of us have experienced:  do you think we should stick with our first instinct when answering a test question?  Most of us think we should.  After all, so many of us remember lots of times where we initially circled the right answer, only to cross it out and choose another.

The problem with this is that research suggests that our first instincts are no more reliable than our second-guessing.  Why does the myth persist?  Well, we're more likely to remember the times we second-guessed and got it wrong than the times we second-guessed and got it right.  Switching away from the right answer is just so frustrating that it's a more memorable event.  So if I got back the following test...


Overthinking: Not a Thing

...I'd probably only notice that I changed #6 and #7 to the wrong answer.  I'd be much less likely to notice that I changed #1 and #3 to the right answer.

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